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November 4, 2024

Students for Life Action’s Bellwether Watch List: Trends & Key Contests to Track

 

 

“When the bookmakers and pundits track the results – assuming the lawyers don’t stop it – some races will play larger than others. Check out Students for Life Action’s short list of key races and trends, as we all wait to see who will lead in state houses and Washington D.C.,” said SFLAction’s Kristan Hawkins. What’s different in this post-Dobbs election cycle will be the makeup of statehouses has life-and-death significance, too.”

 

TO WATCH THE RESULTS: Tune in to SFLAction’s Election Night Livestream where talented guests like Andy Roth, Josh Hammer, Tony Kinett, Congressman Bob Good, and more will track the trends that have life and death consequences.

 

The three-hour LIVESTREAM will air Tuesday, Nov. 5, from 9 p.m. – 12 a.m. ET, on ProLifeGen.org/ElectionCoverage and the @studentsforlife and @studentsforlifeaction Facebook, Instagram, & YouTube pages.

 

To set up interviews, email [email protected].

 

WASHINGTON D.C. (11-04-2024) – As part of our election watch, Students for Life Action (SFLAction) will join the pundits monitoring trends on election night, when President Kristan Hawkins and Pro-Life Generation (PLG) staff will host a special election night livestream. Hawkins and other staff will be joined by special guests including Josh Hammer, Tony Kinett, Nick Freitas, U.S. Rep. Bob Good, and more for pro-life perspectives and real time updates on the nights’ biggest races.

This spring, SFLAction engaged in competitive primary races and ballot push back before focusing on 12 states in the general election following an aggressive, grassroots campaign. Hawkins noted in an op-ed at Townhall  that a gritty campaign for LIFE can shift outcomes. Hawkins wrote about the organization’s primary election efforts noting, “In total, across 156 competitive primary races where Students for Life Action was involved and educating voters, 86 unapologetically pro-life candidates won – including the defeat of dozens of incumbents. And we did it at a cost of $1,179 per candidate.”

For a few key places to watch on Tuesday night, consider this check list:

ARIZONA

We are tracking the results of the pro-abortion ballot initiative, which would legalize abortion through all nine months if it passes.

SFLAction is likewise tracking races that could change the balance of power in the state House, which is currently, and narrowly, controlled by Republicans.

  • House District 4 – Pamela Carter, challenging Republican Rep. Gress, who voted in favor of repealing AZ’s pro-life laws.
  • House District 17 – Reps. Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr.
  • Senate District 9 – Robert Scantlebury, taking on incumbent Sen. Burch, who publicly said on the State floor that she is proud to have abortions, and is calling for zero restrictions on the procedure.

READ: Students for Life Action Congratulates the THREE Winning Pro-Life Arizona Candidates Now Headed to the General Election 

 

FLORIDA

Rep. Carolina Amesty, a freshman Republican strong on the pro-life issues, is defending against a challenge from Democrat Leonard Spencer, a liberal DEI executive employed by Disney. During our most recent student door knocking deployment in this district, SFLAction knocked on more than 10,000 doors.

Beyond that race, Amendment 4, which will legalize abortion through all nine months if passed and has been used to energize the Democrat voting base, will be the biggest issue SFLAction is following and has invested significant resources in Florida. Of note, former President Donald Trump announced that he would vote against the measure.

READ: Senator Marco Rubio’s Latest Op-Ed: The Truth About Amendment 4 

 

MISSOURI

SFLAction is tracking the hotly contested pro-abortion ballot initiative, Amendment 3, which, if passed, would legalize abortion in Missouri through all nine months. The current polling shows this vote will be close.

Additionally, in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional district, pro-life doctor and former Missouri State Senator Dr. Bob Onder is expected to win. He sponsored Missouri’s chief pro-life laws and would be the first Students for Life of America (SFLA) “alumni” elected to Congress. SFLAction students and volunteers engaged in his race by door-knocking and engaging voters in his district.

READ: Students for Life Action Launches Election Grassroots Push in Swing State of Missouri with the Youth Vote – About One-Third of the Electorate 

 

MONTANA

A key seat to control the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance in the race between Democrat Sen. John Tester and pro-life Republican opponent Tim Sheehy.

We are also tracking the hopeful defeat of the state’s pro-abortion ballot initiative, which would legalize abortion through all nine months if it passes.

READ: Montana Primaries See Victories for THREE Pro-Life Candidates Who Returned Students for Life Action Surveys 

 

NEBRASKA

Last year, pro-abortion State Sen. Merv Riepe filibustered the Nebraska Heartbeat Act, forcing his fellow Republicans to switch gears and pass only 12-week (over two and a half months) abortion prevention act instead since they lacked the 33 votes necessary to overcome his filibuster. SFLAction hopes to see the defeat of the pro-abortion constitutional amendment in the ballot and witness genuine pro-life Republicans gain enough seats to reach 33 pro-life votes to overcome future filibusters.

The key races are:

  • District 31 – Kathleen Kauth
  • District 21 – Beau Ballard
  • District 33 – Dan Lonowksi
  • District 49 – Bob Andersen
  • District 37 – Lana Peister
  • District 41 – Ethan Clark

READ: Students for Life Action Applauds Election of Key Pro-Life Leaders in Nebraska Primary Races 

 

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Currently, Republicans have a narrow control of the New Hampshire House, and whether bills are passed or killed often depends on who shows up to vote. Republicans are expected to make small gains, but not all Republicans in New Hampshire are pro-life. As such, SFLAction seeks to advance pro-life conservatives in the general election who have engaged in numerous campaigns involving calls, texts, door knocking, and our digital quiz ads.

We will also be monitoring the race for governor. Former Gov. Chris Sununu was infamously terrible on the abortion issue, actively pushed Republicans to repeal the state’s six-month abortion prevention law. As such, former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte would be a marked improvement.

READ: Students for Life Action Applauds Election of Six Pro-Life Leaders in Targeted New Hampshire Primary Districts 

READ: Chanel Prunier’s Op-Ed: New Hampshire Women Deserve Better than the Barbarism of Limitless Abortion 

NORTH CAROLINA

Pro-life Republican Laurie Buckout challenges Democrat incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Davis for the hotly contested Congressional district 1 seat.

Rep. Davis’s voting record has consistently aligned with the Democrats, opposing pro-life laws.  Recently, SFLAction door knocked, made calls, sent texts, and engaged in a digital ad campaign in this district.

Additionally, SFLAction is tracking four state legislative races that are critical to Republicans maintaining their veto-proof super majority in Raleigh:

  • House District 73 – Johnathan Almond
  • Senate District 34 – Sen. Paul Newton
  • House District 5 – Rep. Bill Ward
  • House District 82 – Rep. Bobby Hanig

READ: Students for Life Action Applauds Election of Four Pro-Life Leaders in North Carolina Primary Races 

 

OKLAHOMA

Three Democrat appointed Oklahoma Supreme Court judges, who have struck down pro-life laws, are up for a retention vote this year.

Additionally, we are monitoring the races of five pro-life candidates, several of which were instrumental in introducing SFLAction sponsored legislation.

READ: Oklahoma Primary Races See FIVE Students for Life Action Backed Candidates Win

READ: Legislation Alert: Oklahoma Introduces HB 3013, Restricting and Punishing Chemical Abortion Pill Sales

 

PENNSYLVANIA

Pro-life incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-10) will attempt to hold his U.S. Congressional seat against challenger Janelle Stelson, a local news anchor singularly focused on abortion without any restrictions.

SFLAction also watches the fight for a majority in the Pennsylvania House. A victory for Republicans here is critical to ensure the defunding of the University of Pittsburgh over their experiments on the remains of aborted babies.

READ: Holding Pennsylvania’s Elected Leaders Accountable

READ: Students for Life Action Applauds Election of Pro-Life Leaders in Pennsylvania Primary Races

 

SOUTH CAROLINA

South Carolina represents one of the most important strategic battles for SFLAction ever since the 2023 defeat of our Human Life Protection Act, when three Republicans sided with the Democrats to filibuster and block this pro-life legislation.

These so-called “sister Senators,” Katrina Shealy, Sandy Senn, and Penry Gustafson, were all defeated in the primaries this spring after a targeted, strategic campaign. In the race between State Sen. Sandy Senn and pro-life candidate Matt Leber, the margin of victory was only 31 votes, showcasing how critical SFLAction’s grassroots work is to secure wins.

The key races include:

  • Senate District 25 – Jason Guerry, who’s running for an open seat against a pro-abortion Democrat.
  • Senate District 35 – Mike Jones, who could take a seat previously occupied by pro-abortion Democrats.
  • Senate District 41 – Rep. Matt Leber, who defeated one of the pro-abortion sister senators in the primary, and now faces a hotly contested swing district.

Our chief legislative battle next year will be to pass a Life at Conception Act in South Carolina, which has passed the House several times by wide margins. SFLAction hopes to gain even more seats in the South Carolina Senate to improve our chances of passage.

READ: Pro-Abortion Republicans Championed by New York Times DEFEATED in South Carolina Primary Races by Pro-Life Candidates

READ: Students for Life Action Delivers Moving Boxes to State Senators Who Betrayed Life

 

SFLACTION’S MODEL ON DISPLAY: The Pro-Life Generation focuses on raising up pro-life champions in primary seasons, resulting in champions sworn in when state and federal legislatures convene, and then educates voters on abortion radicalism during the lead up to general elections.

SFLAction was the only national pro-life organization to actively participate in over 150 primaries this spring and summer, resulting in 86 pro-life champions winning their races with more than 91,000 doors knocked, over 1,360,000 personal texts sent, more than 345,000 phone calls made, and over 241,000 pieces of literature distributed and counting.

In the case of South Carolina, three GOP “sister” senators who declared their intention to oppose the passage of pro-life laws, including SFLAction’s Life at Conception Act, were roundly defeated this June after a series of grassroots pushes, campaigns, and deployments.

LEARN MORE in Hawkins’ recent op-ed, titled: Getting Rid of Foxes in the Pro-Life Henhouse

Also read: Students for Life Action Delivers Moving Boxes to South Carolina Senators Who Betrayed Life

IN CASE OF A CHALLENGED ELECTION RESULT: With the likelihood that voter results take time and post-election lawsuits will be filed to contest results, SFLAction has already launched our Election Integrity Team recruitment, beginning the work of registering volunteers for the election follow-up work.

TO LEARN MORE ABOUT JOINING OUR ELECTION INTEGRITY TEAMS, CLICK HERE.

 

LEARN MORE ABOUT THE LIVESTREAM HERE

 

To set up interviews or speak with organization leadership,
email [email protected].

 

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The Pro-Life Generation (PLG) is an umbrella organization encompassing the most-cutting edge engagement opportunities for a Vote Pro-Life First Community. PLG includes Students for Life Action (SFLAction), a 501c4, along with its 501c3 sister organization, Students for Life of America (SFLA), that together make up the nation’s largest, pro-life youth organization, managing a grassroots political and policy operation engaging Americans of all ages but with a special emphasis on the largest segment of voters — the Youth Vote. Headquartered in Fredericksburg, VA, PLG/SFLA/SFLAction serves more than 1,500 groups on middle, high school, college, medical, and law school campuses in all 50 states. Our team has more conversations with this generation targeted by the abortion lobby than any other pro-life operation in the world, each week reaching more than 4 million across social media platforms and averaging 1.3 million video views. In addition to SFLA/SFLAction, PLG leads multiple initiatives to lead and serve the future of the pro-life movement including the Campaign for Abortion Free Cities, Standing With You, and the Demetree Institute for Pro-Life Advancement . Over more than 17 years, PLG CEO Kristan Hawkins has grown the operation into a nearly $20M organization, now preparing for an abortion-free America.