November 27, 2023
If polling is accurate at all, President Joe Biden is very unpopular – more so than Donald Trump at this point in his Presidency, in fact. At the time of this blog, week 146 of the current Presidency, Donald Trump was polling at 42.9% approval… Joe Biden is at 41%.
It gets worse for the Democrats. Less than 25% of the nation thinks we’re on the right track… compare that to over 1/3 who thought the same during Trump’s Presidency. The polling shows Biden losing to Trump now in nearly every swing state.
Naturally, Democrats are panicking – according to reporting by CNN: “There’s real concern he could be the first Democrat to lose a bid for reelection since Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
Long-time close aide of Barack Obama, David Axelrod has called for Biden to step aside, leading Biden to have another of his famous, name-calling meltdowns.
“The country has soured on Joe Biden; there’s just not another way to put it,” said CNN political director David Chalian in sharing results during election night coverage of a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Only about 40% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president and only a quarter say he has the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively. Add to that his family’s legal troubles, and it’s obvious rough days could be ahead.
So how can they avoid President Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket in 2024? Assuming that he does not decline to run – which seems unlikely at this point — there are at least four specific ways.
First: Joe Biden loses the Democrat Party Presidential Primary.
Given that his competition is noted magic crystals enthusiast Marianne Williamson and some other unknown candidates, this seems very unlikely. The Democrats likely want to avoid a competitive primary, because it means donor dollars spent on ads, polling, volunteers, and get out the vote efforts between competitors… and that’s dollars not spent against the GOP nominee. And the process itself, designed by the party, has been very protective of Joe Biden’s interests, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. noted in discussing his decision to leave the party and run independently.
Second: At the convention delegates who ran on a pledge to support the President, don’t.
According to Fox News’ analysis of the Democrat Party Convention rules,: “Delegates are awarded to candidates during primaries throughout the first half of the year, but they won’t elect a candidate for president until they vote during that convention. Under Democratic Party rules, pledged delegates are not required to vote for the candidate they represent but are told to “reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” so an endorsement from Biden would be very influential.”
It would make for an exciting show, but anyone who remembers what happened in 2016 between the Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders delegates remembers knows what a messy public battle can mean for voters. The potential loss of unhappy candidate loyalists going elsewhere in one of the most crowded and competitive Third-Party Presidential candidate fields in recent memory is a huge risk for the DNC.
Third: Joe Biden resigns after the primary and after he has secured the nomination for President at the convention.
This strategy entirely avoids the floor battle for delegates; in this scenario, the delegates have no role at all. The Democrat Party’s powerful will pick Biden’s successor for him in secret. This seems most likely, given what will likely happen with his sons legal troubles or the President’s continued descent into unelectability.
According to their 2024 DNC Convention procedural rules: “Filling a Vacancy on the National Ticket: In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.” (Emphasis added.)
Fourth: President Biden drops Vice President Kamala Harris and chooses his successor now.
Harris is second in line to the current President, but with polling problems of her own that put her behind President Biden. She does scores points with her abortion advocacy in the radical environment of the Democratic Party. Consider this CNN headline: Kamala Harris found her voice on abortion rights in the year after Dobbs. Now she’s making it central to her 2024 message. While she is not the only contender with a terrible track record pushing abortion as the one thing she can do, Harris’ performance in office leads many to assume she’s not going to get much support in her own party. Her word salads alone make the choice less likely. When New York Magazine’s Intelligencer has headlines like “The Case for Biden to Drop Kamala Harris” it’s not going well.
But considering option three and maybe four, the question would turn to who the Democrats would pick if not Joe Biden.
CA Governor Gavin Newsom
Between his trip to China, his push for a Constitutional Amendment to effectively ban firearms, debate with Ron DeSantis this month and his most recent abortion lies about Florida wanting to arrest pregnant women and doctors, he’s certainly playing the role of a candidate running for President. Hailing from the most powerful state under Democrat control, his family ties to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and a darling of the tech world, he appears to be running for the job, and with the radical abortion policies he has embraced, (like making California a “Sanctuary State” for Abortion), he is ready to go further with Biden’s abortion agenda.
Biden himself has praise for Newsom, and at a recent event with Chinese leadership in California said, “I want to talk about Gov. Newsom. Want to thank him. He’s been one hell of a governor, man. Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for,” getting laughter from the room in response, reported CBS.
Learn more about Gavin’s abortion track record reading: California Governor’s Obsession with Abortion is Confirmed, as “Maryland’s Third Senator” Sworn into Congress and The Man Who Isn’t Running for President IS Running His Mouth About Abortion Limits (Or a Lack Thereof) among many articles on his abortion activism at SFLAction’s blog.
MI Governor Gretchen Whitmer
Another contender is leaning into the Democrats push to make abortion the front and center issue of 2024, by gleefully pushing for more and more abortion. She is also the Governor of a critical swing state, where her supporters have noted her track record in Michigan post-pandemic, in that it’s above the national average, despite her draconian lockdown methods, including a ban on gardening in April 2020.
Whitmer wants to be an abortion-celebrating office holder, but at what level who can say. Read more here on her actions in office: Whether in the Womb or in the Ground, Governor Gretchen Whitmer Wants to Make Sure that NOTHING Grows in Michigan – Except the Tax Base and here: Gubernatorial Bullies oppose Babies and all kind of Basic Freedoms, as an All-Female Cast of Pro-Abortion Candidates Flounder, notes Students for Life Action
IL Governor JB Pritzker
Not to be outdone by Michigan, Illinois is also leaning into the abortion battle, with their Governor introducing a new group battling for abortion access across the nation. According to the report from AP: “Think Big America has already funded support for constitutional amendments favoring abortion access in Ohio, Arizona and Nevada. The effort also enhances the profile of the Democratic governor and multibillionaire equity investor and philanthropist.” If you wanted to dangle a carrot in front of Democrat voters, the party certainly thinks abortion is it… and this would be a very large carrot, given that it is apparently entirely self-funded by Gov. Pritzker alone.
Learn more here: Illinois Governor Launches Pro-Abortion Group “Think Big America” for Brownie Points — But It Just Makes You Think Badly of Him
Who do you think it will be? Share this blog and tag us on social media and let us know who you think will be running for President from either party.
Read Next: Here Are the Candidates that Have Announced a 2024 White House Bid & What They’ve Said on Abortion